Why a ‘DOGE dividend’ stimulus check could be unlikely

But, budget experts say this ambitious goal to save trillions of dollars – nearly one-third of the federal government’s annual spending – is highly unlikely.

DOGE’s savings so far, according to Musk

Dig deeper:

James Fishback, founder of investment firm Azoria Partners which he launched at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, promoted the idea Tuesday on X, formerly known as Twitter, prompting Elon Musk to respond that he would “check with the president.” Fishback said there have also been “behind the scenes” conversations about the issue with White House officials.

Musk has estimated that his Department of Government Efficiency has cut $55 billion so far — a tiny fraction of the $6.8 trillion federal budget. But DOGE’s public statements so far haven’t verified the presumed savings, and its claims that tens of millions of dead people are fraudulently receiving Social Security have been disproven.

Fishback supports having the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office determine how much DOGE saved. If DOGE cuts $500 billion by July 2026, he said, then the checks would be $1,250, rather than $5,000.

“We uncovered enormous waste, fraud and abuse,” Fishback said in an interview with The Associated Press. “And we are going to make good and pay restitution and then rewrite the social contract between the taxpayer and the federal government.”

Fishback supports sending out checks, rather than using all the money to reduce the deficit, because it would encourage Americans to seek out wasteful government spending “in their communities, and report it to DOGE.”

July 2026

The proposal set forth by DOGE suggests it will complete its work by July 2026. Once that happens, one-fifth of any savings could be distributed to roughly 79 million households that pay income tax.

About 40% of Americans don’t pay such taxes, so they wouldn’t get a check.

Will another round of stimulus checks add to inflation?

Trump and his economists blamed former President Joe Biden’s $1,200 stimulus checks which were distributed during the spring of 2021.

Yet, Trump’s administration maintained that sending out these checks would come from reduced government spending and wouldn’t impact inflation.

Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said Thursday that since the money would have been spent by the government anyway, having it spent by consumers would be a wash. Biden and Trump’s stimulus checks during the pandemic were deficit-financed, which can be more inflationary.

The other side:

Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab, and an economist in the Biden White House, said that more government checks are “the last thing we need economically right now.”

The U.S. unemployment rate is now much lower than in 2021, Tedeschi said, which means that businesses could struggle to hire enough workers to meet the additional demand created by a round of checks. Worker shortages can push up prices.